Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Gone for Two Weeks

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/81d4ce44-3717-11dd-bc1c-0000779fd2ac.html

Ben Bernanke stated yesterday he might raise rates and the two-year T-note yield jumped by 50 basis points. Wow. We live in an era of tremendous volatility, which probably increases the expected return of all the various asset classes as investors demand more return for taking on more risk, especially when such volatility is seen in the 'risk-free' asset. I can only hope that my future clients are smart enough to stick around for the long run rather than commit the all-too common error of selling when the market is at its bottom and buying at its peak (assuming that it isn't a bubble situation; in that case, the rules go out the window).

Over the next two weeks I will be in Switzerland, Germany, Italy and France, some of the shining examples of modern welfare states (with lower economic growth and an increasing fiscal drain from an immigrant underclass to boot). During the long plane ride I hope to finish Den of Thieves (a GREAT book so far) and perhaps start on When Genius Failed, a book about the rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998.

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