I have always been wary of extreme emotion on a group level. It can be fun and exciting in a harmless context like a sports game, but in the arena of national politics it can be deadly, especially without strong institutions.
(I wonder if leaders who enjoy extremely strong support can more easily be hated, and if leaders who merely experience moderate support equivalently experience moderate dislike, in the same way that a high technology stock will gain or lose 40% in a week and a utility company might only fluctuate by 5%.)
I believe that we are currently experiencing a 'bubble' of political goodwill with the election of Obama. Surely he might turn out to be a good (or even great) president, but it is rare that such enthusiasm and adoration from the crowd persists over a long stretch of time. At some point, even the most beloved politicians make one misstep too many and lose their political base. And even if the politican is able to inspire the country (a la FDR) his actual policies may do more harm than good as in FDR's case who attempted to pump-prime the economy in classical Keynesian style by paying men to bury money and then paying them once again to dig it up. As I understand it, unproductive procyclical fiscal policy and a lack of business confidence were two major reasons for the perpetuation of the Great Depression. Undoubtedly fiscal policy only works well when it is conducted productively.
(Note to self: investigate this question some more. What are the quantitative differences between productive and unproductive fiscal policy? What specific policies count as productive or unproductive? Did it really perpetuate the Great Depression? Learn more about the Great Depression's causes. There is so much to learn!)
I digress. I tentatively predict that Obama will enter the White House with a large amount of support, but at some point will slip up and experience a temporary or more likely, permanent decrease in goodwill. Barring assassination, this seems to be the life cycle of most politicians. The less history a politician has, the fewer hard binary choices he's made, the fewer groups he's pissed off, the more people like him. Obama seems to be intelligent and practical; I doubt he would make the recession worse in 2009 by instituting contractionary fiscal policy in the form of much higher taxes or trade restrictions. But if he does, the economic effects could be devastating and his political life cycle would be that much shorter.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
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